you are on the right track but now factor in insulin and glucagon in the picture
also not all carbs are the same. you aren't spiking your insulin off a sweet potato, but you damn well will eating white bread from walmart. even if they are the exact same carbs, they are completely different. ask any diabetic who tracks their blood sugar, they will clearly say cake requries them to use insulin way more than a potato will. that is why counting macros/ IIFYM is retarded. also good fats will not spike insulin virtually at all. remember that. 130 calories of unrefined PURE organic coconut oil contains 130g of fat. so it is PURE FAT. it will not have any effect on insulin or blood sugar, but refined oils will